No matter how serious the quarrels of Iran and Afghanistan – such as rivalry over routes of transport for oil and gas; US regional policies; the murder of Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif; Taliban’s persecution of the Shi’i community in Afghanistan – they do not warrant going to war. Particularly a war which would be difficult to end, especially after US warnings on Iran and the dangers of spill-over into Pakistan and beyond.
Moreover it is unlikely that the leaders of the Islamic Republic are unaware of the economic sickness of the country nor of the public’s lack of stomach for such a war. They cannot be so stupid as not to realise that to impose a war on a country with deep cracks from below to the top of the pyramid of power, and when show their hatred people openly and courageously in their millions, would be inviting rebellion.
Yet, paradoxically, it is knowledge of these conditions that had driven the “Taliban” ruling Iran to pick quarrels with its twin in Afghanistan and blow it up into an atmosphere of war. It is a desperate ploy to put these conditions behind them.
That the warlike noises of the “Taliban” faction in Iran has an internal audience in its sights is too obvious, and generally accepted, to require further comment. What needs highlighting is that closure of independent newspapers, manipulating the elections to the Assembly of Experts, and even coup threats against Khatami are not the ultimate target. We are seeing the preludes and the preparations to bury the popular movement which has showed its face since the presidential elections of May 23 last year.
The “Taliban” faction in power in the Islamic Republic knows full well that to retreat in front of the demands of this movement is to walk into its own grave. The trenches being dug for the Afghani Taliban are no other than the graves being dug for the popular movement. The war cries are for a war against the people of Iran.
Not surprisingly, therefore, all opposition to this faction’s dominance is presented as being in league with the enemy. Discipline for war is filling in the cracks within the armed forces (and even security apparatus). The threat of hostilities is being used to rally the various factions and the clergy behind the dominant faction. And critiques are condemned for helping the enemy.
This military alert is not to save the people of Afghanistan from the clutches of the Taliban, but to rescue those who have been named as the “Iranian Taliban” by the people of Iran from the threat of its people. By attacking the Afghani Taliban as backward, reactionary, barbarians, and a disgrace to Islam, the “Iranian Taliban” wish to present themselves as defenders of a progressive and humane Islam. But the people of Iran know their Taliban well enough not to fall for such ridiculous posturing.
Yet if the war against the Afghani Taliban is at present in full alert, the “talibani” war against the people of Iran is in full swing. The first shots in this battle have been the closure of some newspapers not subservient to the native “Taliban”, arrests of their journalists with such telling accusations as “acts against national security” and calls by Mohseni Ajehi’ (judge in Teheran Mayor’s trial) that they should be executed as mohareb (at war with God).
It would be short-sighted to believe that the attacks will stop once the elections to the Assembly of Experts are over, or all will be fine if an out and out war with Afghanistan is averted. The Iranian “Taliban” wants to use war and repression to remove the May 23 movement from its way. That movement should therefore target the war and repression.
It is in this critical and historic juncture that Khatami, who owes his place to the overwhelming vote of the May 23 movement, suddenly steps in with his cautions and conciliatory policies. He invites the people to be calm, to obey the repressive laws, sends warnings to the press and explains away off their closure, praises Asadollah Lajevardi, the butcher of Evin Prison (who was assassinated), and pursues a policy of placating the “Taliban” faction.
News from Iran is of increasingly bold resistance (such as the demonstrations outside the ministry of justice demanding release of political prisoners) and criticisms of Khatami’s compromises. The people of both Iran and Afghanistan do not want war. If there is to be any fighting, it must be directed at their own Taliban. In this, as in so much else, the people of the two countries need to work together.
Khomeini drunk the poison chalice when he accepted defeat in the Iran-Iraq war. The people of Iran now have another chalice to fill.
iran bulletin 19 Winter 1998